Will there be an El Niño in 2023?
El Niño and La Niña Forecast statusThe status of the ENSO Forecast is determined using set criteria (described below) and expert analysis by climatologists at the Bureau of Meteorology. It is updated fortnightly. Show
El NiñoEl Niño WATCH"The chance of an El Niño developing in the coming season has increased. When these criteria have been met in the past, an El Niño event has developed around 50% of the time." All of the following criteria need to be satisfied:
El Niño ALERT"The chance of an El Niño developing in the coming season has increased. When these criteria have been met in the past, an El Niño event has developed around 70% of the time." Any three of the following criteria need to be satisfied:
EL NIÑO"An El Niño has been declared and is underway." Any three of the following criteria need to be satisfied:
La NiñaLa Niña WATCH"The chance of a La Niña developing in the coming season has increased. When these criteria have been met in the past, a La Niña event has developed around 50% of the time." All the following criteria need to be satisfied:
La Niña ALERT"The chance of a La Niña developing in the coming season has increased. When these criteria have been met in the past, a La Niña event has developed around 70% of the time." Any three of the following criteria need to be satisfied:
LA NIÑA"A La Niña has been declared and is underway." Any three of the following criteria need to be satisfied:
InactiveINACTIVE"An ENSO event is not active in the tropical Pacific Ocean and there are no signs of an El Niño or La Niña developing." The ENSO Forecast status is updated each fortnight. The below graph shows the fortnightly values dating back to January 1980. The below table shows the monthly value of the ENSO Forecast for historical comparisons. The ENSO Forecast graph and table are not an official time-line of ENSO events. For the official history of El Niño and La Niña events see:
Fortnightly ENSO Forecast valuesMonthly ENSO Forecast valuesLegend
El Niño and La Niña yearsShading of text in the year column refers to years in which El Niño (red) or La Niña (blue) events began. Historical values of the ENSO Forecast status prior to 2014 are based on the set criteria alone. Values from the beginning of 2014 include expert analysis by climatologists at the Bureau of Meteorology to make the final assessment on a status level having been reached. Using the ENSO Forecast
ENSO Forecast verificationThe ENSO Forecast system has been retrospectively assessed for each year since 1980 with the success rate summarised below. Important considerations relating to these figures include:
ENSO Forecast status: success rate
Will El Niño return in 2023?The Bureau's latest climate driver update, released on Tuesday, forecasts a return to a neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a cycle in which winds and sea-surface temperatures vary over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. The majority of the BoM's models indicate a “return to ENSO-neutral in early 2023”.
Is it El Niño or La Niña 2023?5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña. The most recent IRI plume forecast of the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, and then transition to ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023 [Fig. 6].
Will there be a drought in 2023?Drought to persist in Great Plains, parts of West and expand
Starting in December 2022 through February 2023, NOAA predicts drier-than-average conditions across the South with wetter-than-average conditions for areas of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest.
Will there be La Niña 2023?La Niña continues
The majority of models predict a return to neutral ENSO by early 2023. La Niña conditions increase the chance of above average spring and summer rainfall in northern and eastern Australia.
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