Why do mergers cluster in time, causing merger waves?

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Posted: 11 Nov 2004

Jarrad Harford

University of Washington; European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

Abstract

Aggregate merger waves could be due to market timing or to clustering of industry shocks for which mergers facilitate change to the new environment. This study finds that economic, regulatory or technological shocks drive industry merger waves. However, the degree of capital liquidity determines whether a shock initiates a merger wave. This macro-level liquidity component causes industry merger waves to cluster in time even if industry shocks do not. Market-timing variables have little explanatory power relative to an economic model including this liquidity component. The contemporaneous peak in divisional acquisitions for cash also suggests an economic motivation for the merger activity.

Keywords: Mergers and acquisitions, takeover, merger waves, behavioral, capital liquidity

JEL Classification: G34

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

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Abstract

We represent the economy as a network of industries connected through customer and supplier trade flows. Using this network topology, we find that stronger product market connections lead to a greater incidence of cross-industry mergers. Furthermore, mergers propagate in waves across the network through customer-supplier links. Merger activity transmits to close industries quickly and to distant industries with a delay. Finally, economy-wide merger waves are driven by merger activity in industries that are centrally located in the product market network. Overall, we show that the network of real economic transactions helps to explain the formation and propagation of merger waves.

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What factors that affect mergers?

Pre-transaction success factors.
The right partner..
Trust between the parties..
Due diligence en good valuation..
Experience from previous mergers and acquisitions..
Communication before the execution of the merger or acquisition..
Quality of the plan..
Execution of the plan..
Swiftness of integration..