- The Farmers' Almanac, which has made weather predictions for the U.S. since 1818, has released its 2022-2023 winter forecast.
- The forecast predicts the "first bite of winter" is expected to come earlier than last year's, with frigid temperatures especially hitting the North Central region.
- These big picture weather predictions should be taken with a grain of salt, some weather experts say.
DES MOINES — The Farmers' Almanac came out with its winter weather predictions across the U.S., and it's going to be – you guessed it – frigid.
Specifically, the almanac, an annual American periodical in publication since 1818, is calling the North Central region a "hibernation zone, glacial, snow-filled." Yikes.
"The big takeaway for our winter season forecast," the periodical wrote, "is that frigid temperatures should flow into many areas nationwide – especially in the North Central region, where readers will certainly be shaking and shivering!"
The North Central region encompasses Iowa, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.
There will be a fair share of storms in the region, which means plenty of snow for winter enthusiasts – "maybe even in time for a white Christmas," the almanac editors wrote.
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The first day of winter and the shortest day of the year will be Dec. 21, but the almanac's 2022-2023 winter forecast predicts the "first bite of winter" is expected to come earlier than last year's.
December looks stormy and cold across the U.S. and multiple "significant weather disturbances" are on the horizon, including:
- Potential for heavy snow, followed by a sweep of bitterly cold air, the first week of January in the Rockies and across the Plains. The weather could reach as far south as Texas and Oklahoma.
- Bouts of heavy rain and snow over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. from Jan. 16-23, the Almanac predicts. It'll be followed by "one of the coldest outbreaks of arctic air" recorded in several years. We're talking 40 degrees below zero.
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Here are a few highlights from other regions, according to the Farmers' Almanac:
- Much of the Southeast will see a mix of wet snow, sleet, ice, freezing rain and chilly temperatures.
- South Central states could see some snow accumulation, especially in early January.
- The Pacific Northwest will see about-normal winter precipitation, though the Southwest is forecasted to receive less-than-normal amounts.
How does the Farmers' Almanac make its predictions?
Both the "Old Farmer's Almanac," which began in 1792, and the "Farmers' Almanac," which started in 1818, got their starts more than a century before satellite weather tracking became a practice.
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Instead of comparing the upcoming winter with the previous one, the periodical measures against long-term normals for temperature, precipitation and snowfall using mathematical and astronomical formulations to make its predictions. The formula takes into account sunspot activity, tidal activity, planets' positions and "a variety of other factors," according to its website.
How accurate is the Farmers' Almanac?
These big picture weather predictions should be taken with a grain of salt, some weather experts say. The Old Farmer's Almanac has traditionally claimed to have 80% accuracy, but research in recent years has suggested otherwise.
In 2016 and 2017, for example, meteorologist Jan Null conducted an accuracy review of the "Old Farmer's Almanac," giving out "good," "bad" and "mixed" grades to the almanac's winter forecast based on how the projections compared to the actual weather outcome in each region of the U.S.
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Just 25% of the 57 regions reviewed got a "good" accuracy rating for precipitation predictions in the 2016 and 2017 editions of the "Old Farmer's Almanac." For temperature predictions during that same time span, the almanac earned a "good" accuracy rating on just under 33% of the 52 regions reviewed.
Contributing: Jay Cannon, USA TODAY.
Follow Virginia Barreda ion Twitter at @vbarreda2.